Speaking as the guest of honour at the Economics and Current Affairs Group’s dinner this evening at London’s historic and prestigious Reform Club, ODFS Director Ribal Al-Assad, called on the Syrian regime to end the repression and to implement reforms. He called for freedom and dignity for the Syrian people.

The audience was made up of business people, journalists, politicians, diplomats, political advisers, policy experts, bankers, and human rights campaigners.

The chairman of the group praised Mr Assad for his work in promoting freedom, democracy and human rights.The event concluded with a comprehensive Q & A session.

In his speech, ‘The Road to Damascus Must Lead to Reform’ Ribal Al-Assad said:

Distinguished guests, friends, ladies and gentleman, I am delighted to join you here today in these magnificent surroundings to talk about arguably the most pressing if not topical issue of the moment; civil unrest in the Arab World.

I want to start by dispelling a myth. That democracy and freedom in the Middle East is not possible. For far too long the Middle East has been banded about as some sort of byword for authoritarian regimes, it is almost a cliche for democratic failure.

But ladies and gentlemen what we are witnessing now is a change, we are actually seeing it in fruition on our screens and in our papers, we are living within it. This genie cannot be put back in its bottle.

For the first time in many years I am optimistic. I am optimistic because something is actually happening. Over the past few months we have seen -for the first time in decades- tyrannic oppression confronted and subsequently shattered by ordinary people.

I am optimistic for the opportunity that these uprisings have provided and for what they have the potential to achieve. I am delighted to hear people on the street in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Syria freely expressing their thoughts. For the first time that I can remember I have heard the view of these nations not from a podium but from a pavement, from the people.

My optimism is however tempered by a pragmatic reality, it would be foolish for me to stand here and proclaim the virtues of change for changes sake. We all know that sudden and dramatic change can potentially result in prolonged failure. So it is better if the change is peaceful and transitional.

In the course of this speech I want to start by examining the current unrest in the context of my own country, Syria.

Syria is a most wonderful country, rich with breathtaking, mountains, landscapes and home to some of the oldest civilisations in the world.

The Syrian people have a right to peacefully protest and air their legitimate demands for political and economic change. They are entitled to freedom, dignity and economic liberty.

I hope the situation in Syria does not get worse. I support all peaceful demonstrations against the Syrian regime. The loss of life is deeply regrettable. I have called on the security forces many times to show restraint.

I welcome today’s European Union arms embargo against the Syrian regime and the asset freezes and travel bans applied to officials and associates of the Syrian regime who are responsible for the violent repression against the civilian population.

People often ask how could I, as an Assad, understand the plight of ordinary Syrians. Well my family were originally farmers from a village. Being part of the elite does not bar one from speaking and campaigning for freedom and dignity for the people. I am in touch with tens of thousands of people in Syria and am reflecting their aspirations, which they are demonstrating for. I am not and have never been part of the government in Syria. I have no personal fortune derived from being an Assad.

I have suffered from the excesses of the regime. In 1994, the regime even tried to assassinate me at Damascus International Airport. I have lived in exile from Syria, since my father left in 1984 (I was 9 years of age at the time). From 1997 to 1999, I lived in Syria to run my family’s charity. However in 1999 when I went visit my family in Spain, the regime came and bombed our house in Latakia. At the time the regime was making preparations for a transfer of power.

Syria is a country which embodies everything that is wrong with the Middle East; it has seen only one regime with two leaders since 1971, the son inheriting from the father, and it has only just emerged, all be it in name only, from nearly 50 years of rule under “Emergency Law”.

My organisation, the Organisation for Democracy and Freedom in Syria, which I established two years ago, promotes democracy and freedom in Syria through peaceful means. For many years Syria’s authoritarian and controlling regime has oppressed people, denied freedom of expression and association, violated human rights, and mismanaged the economy. Tyranny, corruption and poverty are widespread. There is no rule of law. Human rights and democracy activists are often harassed, persecuted, arrested and imprisoned without due process. There is no equality of opportunity and no social justice.

The regime relies on complete state domination of the individual. Any opposition has been neutralised or made to flee over the years through censorship, imprisonment, torture, and brutality.

High food prices, corruption, a lack of personal freedom and a troubled economy all combine to make life for ordinary people a daily struggle. A rising budget deficit, water shortages, declining oil production and rising unemployment have combined to create a society with little social development at the bottom while those at the top have lined their pockets.

So on the face of it we see in Syria a mirror of the unrest in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya; revolt against repression; we see academics, writers, lawyers and human rights and democracy activists and citizens united together confronting a government which has kept them in virtual incarceration for the past 40 years.

The Wall Street Journal recently described these protests as “unprecedented”. But I have been warning for a number of years that although the position was sustained, it was not sustainable. So here we are.

Human Rights Watch could not have put it better when they stated that the Syrian government has shown no qualms about using violence against its own citizens for speaking out.

All across Syria the inhabitants tell horrifying stories of streets strewn with bodies and residents unable to leave homes for fear of meeting the same fate. Basic services, including water and electricity have been cut off by the security forces who are laying siege to cities and preventing food and supplies from reaching the needy.

More importantly however we have to understand Syria’s unique and pivotal role in the region. I can assure you with confidence that whatever happens to Syria will have profound repercussions in the Arab World and beyond; much more-so than any other country which has recently undergone transition.

Increasingly over the past 11 years, the regime has been redefining itself. It has carved a distinctive relationship with two countries in particular.

On the one side, Turkey, an ally of the West.

On the other, Iran, an aggressive, authoritarian regime, intolerant, repressive and by all accounts the main protagonist in east/west tensions today.

Both countries have hegemonic designs.

On the face of it Turkey and Iran could not be more juxtaposed. However it is this juxtaposition which gives the Syrian position strength, I will come onto this later.

Turkey’s relationship with Syria has been historically strained, they have long argued over the management of the Euphrates River -of which Syria is dependent- , there is a dispute over ownership of Al-Iskandaron region and as recently as 1998, Turkey’s army gathered on the border in expectation of a war over Syrian support for rebels of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

However, if we fast forward 10 years or so, a lot has changed.

The Syrian regime now describes Turkey as “Syria’s best friend”, while Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister has publicly called Syrians “his brothers” as well as recently calling on the Syrian regime to implement reforms.

So what happened?

The animosity tempered because of rather desperate circumstances, the regime had been cast aside by the United States, the European Union and moderate Arab nations. The alliance with Turkey helped to soften its international image. Suddenly the regime was some how validated, it was almost as if association with Turkey, was association with a “progressive” mentality.

And it has indeed brought benefits.

Visas between Syria and Turkey have been waived (as is the case with Iran). Trade between Syria and Turkey more than doubled in three years, there has been significant investment by Turkish Companies in Syria and several large scale projects such as a joint Water Institute and dam have been instigated. In April 2009 there was even a bilateral military exercise.

Turkey has much to gain too.

With Turkey, Syria is a project, a vessel for their ambitious plan for the Arab world. Turkey has tried, with some success to reform and shape Syria they have been instrumental in Syria’s attempted international rehabilitation; supporting the economy and brokering talks with Israel. The issue of Syria’s claimed right ownership of the Al-Iskandaron region has been banished from it’s school curriculum to please the Turks.Turkish films are dubbed in Arabic, which has laid a solid foundation for Turkish soft power in the region.

With Iran however the relationship is far more sinister.

It is surely a paradox with Iran who chose to condone the uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East and yet have described the protestors in Syria as “agitators” driven by “foreign enemies”.

The truth of the matter is that at the same time as cosying up to Turkey, Syria has been used by Iran to control Lebanon, Gaza and parts of Iraq. Iran relies heavily on Syria to maintain prominence in the region and has a very strong say in foreign policy.

The grip that Iran exercises over Syria will not be relinquished lightly and has recently been re-enforced by the fact Iran and Syria have chosen to “cooperate” on military exercises and have signed security and defence agreements.

So Syria has found itself caught between Turkey, and Iran, appearing receptive to modernisation on the one hand but at the same time falling back on the strength of a militant power.

This has proved to be a dangerous combination; “the iron fist in a velvet glove”.

I firmly believe that Syria should not be dependent on Turkey or Iran. It should be independent and engage constructively with its Arab neighbours.

In the words of Human Rights Watch the Syrian people have shown “incredible courage in daring to protest publicly against one of the most repressive governments in the region, and they shouldn’t have to pay with their lives.”

And here in lies the crux of my argument, despite the internal grievances, militant force and complex position of Syria in the Middle East, the people’s voice must be heard.

Many of the citizens protesting in Syria have never known true freedom but they can identify with countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya and have moved beyond the impassioned rhetoric of their leader to demand democratic change.

With this in mind the international community must continue to take a robust stance against the Syrian government, it must make it absolutely clear that the current situation is unacceptable.

We do however also need to be conscious of the relations with Turkey and Iran in doing so. The relative momentum of progress instigated by Turkey must be maintained and we need to be responsive to, and mindful of, the Iranian position when we discuss the future of Syria and international intervention.

The Syrian regime cannot continue to falsely blame the protests on foreign conspiracies and armed terrorist gangs. The smokescreen will not wash anymore.

The Syrian regime cannot now rely on it’s empty anti-Israeli and anti-Western rhetoric to protect itself. The cries about the Israel-Palestine conflict have rarely been heard in the protests in Syria and the Middle East. Furthermore, in the last few years, when Israeli planes struck targets in Syria, there was no answer from the regime – and still none when Israeli planes flew over the presidential palace. Yet the regime claims that it is part of the ‘resistance’ with its senior partner Iran. Even though the WikiLeaks cables show that the Syrian leadership told the Iranian regime not to count on it in any war with Israel because it is too weak. The truth is that the the only resistance the Syrian regime shows is the brutality against its own people.The regime is fatally wrong if it thinks its old diversionary tactics will work. Young Syrians will not be fooled by the empty slogans of the past.

The Syrian regime must engage in a broad and meaningful dialogue with the people and allow all the political players to come to the table to discuss how to move forward and to form a national unity government. It must abolish article 8 of the Syrian constitution, which enshrines the Baath party at the centre of national life. Moreover it must move towards a new democratic constitution, which guarantees the separation of powers, independence of the judiciary and which protects the rights of individuals, groups and minorities regardless of religion, ethnic group or sex.

The regime must release all political prisoners. It must allow all independent political parties who genuinely believe in democracy to be established. It must allow peaceful freedom of expression and association and end media and internet censorship. It must start processes to end state corruption. It must enact economic reform and not rely on the quick fix handout approach of cash subsidies, which is not sustainable and move towards an economy with productive jobs that create goods and services that people value.

The regime cannot continue to act on change in the delayed manner it has so far. I have been calling for the lifting of the state of emergency for many years. Yet the regime only acted on this in the recent crisis. For many years I have called for an end to the oppression and persecution of the Syrian Kurds and for them to be recognised as citizens of Syria with full rights. Yet the regime only acted on this recently.

The President of the regime has been talking about reform for 11 years. He cannot continue to prevaricate. He has very little time. He must act. He has a golden opportunity to introduce peaceful transitional democratic change and make history. It is time for reform not repression.

Syria cannot continue to be a vassal of Iran. The Syrian regime should recognise the true intentions of Iran. Iran’s free hand in Syria in exchange for economic assistance has lead to the disintegration of Syrian sovereignty. When Syria re-asserts its identity and sovereignty by creating a national unity government, it will have a sound foundation for disengaging from Iran.

Now to turn to another main element in all of this; what happens next or more specifically could Syria become an Islamist state?

Syria is a beautiful mosaic of ethnicities and religions and it would be a disaster if we ended up with a sectarian war,that some elements in the regime are pushing for because they do not want to face justice.These people want to drag Syria into a civil war because they would be able to ask for Iran to help. Iran would come in and help the regime if there were any signs of it falling. Also there there Islamist’s who are pushing for sectarian conflict, so that they can exploit the situation if the regime suddenly collapses. That would also be a disaster.

The Syrian people should be wise enough to know that this should never be allowed to happen.

One thing is for sure, dictatorships breed corruption. Corruption breeds resentment. Resentment breeds extremism

Take the following scenario, a well educated young man looks far and wide for work but still he cannot secure employment. He has no money to pay for the necessary bribe to get a job or for the licence to start a business. He is unable to sustain himself.

He becomes detached from society. He begins to despair and harbour deep resentment against the society that is responsible for his predicament.

Who will offer him support? The state? Or the groups representing violent Islamism? Sadly and unfortunately in too many Arab countries it is all too often the latter.

Of course not every disaffected youth becomes radicalised. But the conditions created by oppressive regimes make it easier for extremist groups to recruit such young people.

We must comprehend the idea that a free, educated, empowered youth living in prosperous society are unlikely to turn to extremism. Furthermore transparent, respected and functional state institutions are better placed to deal with extremism if they operate in plural and stable society.

I do not believe that democratic elections will inevitably lead to an Islamist government, or a government with Islamist sympathies in Syria and the Arab world. The people are not calling for theocracy. They are calling for freedom and dignity.

Freedom to choose their government and for liberty under that government.

Democracy would create the necessary and legitimate channels for people to present their demands and grievances to the state. The will of the people cannot easily manipulated by the rhetoric of extremist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood or Al-Qaeda.

People want food, housing, jobs and security, freedom and dignity. These are what Arabs are crying out for.

I say that the pursuit of democracy and freedom is the most valuable thing that people in Syria and the Arab world have at the moment.

As I started my speech by saying, we are living within a time of change for the Middle East and with this in mind, if there is one sentiment that I can leave you with tonight it is that the decisions made in the coming weeks and months will define a whole generation, not just in the region, but over here as well.

If we want a Middle East free from repression and dictatorship then the moment to act is now. If we are for democracy, we are for democracy everywhere.

My friends, nobody knows with any certainty what the future holds. The only thing we know for sure is that all across the region people are standing up and risking their lives for freedom and dignity.

The era of political change has just begun. The hope of a brighter day has come. The road to Damascus must lead to reform. I hope that you will support us in this journey.

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