{"id":6405,"date":"2014-01-22T08:58:00","date_gmt":"2014-01-22T08:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/?p=6405"},"modified":"2025-11-24T12:18:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T12:18:09","slug":"ribal-al-assad-speaks-at-oxford-university-united-nations-association","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/ribal-al-assad-speaks-at-oxford-university-united-nations-association\/","title":{"rendered":"Ribal Al-Assad speaks at Oxford University United Nations Association"},"content":{"rendered":"

Director of the ODFS, Ribal Al-Assad today gave a speech at the Oxford University United Nations Association on the subject of the situation in Syira.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ribal spoke about critical situation that the people of Syria find themselves in and the urgent need for a peaceful, dialogue driven solution to the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il testo completo del suo discorso \u00e8 riportato di seguito:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Good evening<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thank you to Paul for your kind invitation to speak here \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and to you all for taking the time to listen!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From my perspective, it is a great honour to be here in Oxford \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 a University steeped in a traditions of democracy and free speech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those values sit at the heart of \u2018The Organisation for Freedom and Democracy in Syria\u2019 \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 whose name says all you need to know about our ethos and objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I am sure you are aware \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 today should be a landmark on the long road to peace in Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It marks the start of the Geneva 2 Conference \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 an event that has been in the making for a year \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 during which, Lakdhar Brahimi, UN and Arab League envoy to Syria suggested that it should pave the way to, and I quote:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA new, democratic, republican system, non-sectarian in Syria, which opens the door to what I call the new Syrian Republic\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was a lovely sentiment \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 that, sadly, is not just unlikely \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but, in the current climate, a complete impossibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take, for example, events in the district of Al Bab in the northern City of Aleppo a week ago \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 where protesters took against the rebel group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, chanting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAl Bab is free, ISIS should go. The traitor is the one who kills his own people.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile Navi Pillay, the United Nations human rights chief \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 declared that the mass executions carried out by jihadist rebels in Aleppo, Idlib and Raqqa \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 constitute war crimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the context into which Geneva 2 begins:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A tyrannical regime \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 fighting an ever more extreme opposition \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 that is turning in on itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will, of course, look at the situation in more detail \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but the press coverage of the conference \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and the cautious sense of optimism surrounding much of that coverage \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 ignores one fatal flaw for anyone who desires a peaceful democratic future for my country:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quite simply, there is no group at the conference representing our interests \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 or those of the majority of peaceful, liberal and democratic Syrians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consequently, the media frenzy over whether the Syrian Coalition will attend \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 or the Islamic Front\u2019s refusal to talk to U.S Ambassador Robert Ford \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 or whether Iran should be invited \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 or dis-invited \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 or whether the regime intends to make meaningless promises in the name of peace \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 are all, fundamentally irrelevant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, I can promise you here and now \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 without the aid of a crystal ball \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 that the conference will fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But how has it come to this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How have those peaceful demonstrations that heralded Syria\u2019s Arab \u2018Spring\u2019 \u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 led to a conflict of such brutality and complexity?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The answer is that this is, and always has been, much more than a straightforward civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mike Morell, the former deputy-director of the CIA, described it as four separate wars rolled-into one:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“the people against a dictator \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 al Qaeda against secular government \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 Sunnis against Shias \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and a proxy war between the Saudis and the Iranians for dominance in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would add a fifth and sixth:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The geo-political cold war between Russia and China on one side and the US and NATO on the other \u2026 and the increasingly violent clashes between rival extremist groups previously labelled as \u2018rebels\u2019 \u2026 but whose core purpose is now far removed from the fight against the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will look briefly at each of those conflicts \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and demonstrate how they have combined to leave the entire region on the brink of a regional war \u2026 that is already spreading through Lebanon, Iraq and beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will also highlight how the global context is changing \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but with no discernible benefit for the Syrian people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As interested political observers \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 you will, no doubt, be aware of the escalating tensions between Russia and China against the United States and NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These have been evident for some time \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 in currency protection \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 missile shields \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 war games from the South China Sea to the Jordanian desert \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and, of course, in the support for and reaction to events in Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There can be no doubt that the welfare of the Syrian people has been no more than a pawn in this geo-political game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the West, the historical vote in Westminster pushed the UK back from supporting President<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obama’s proposed intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also forced the President to seek the approval of Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And only Moscow’s subsequent face-saving offer to the US on chemical weapons …<\/p>\n\n\n\n

… extricated Washington from the ‘red line’ the White House had drawn …<\/p>\n\n\n\n

… that had brought the West so close to a military strike on my country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia was motivated by strategic interests \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and, as now becomes clear, economic prospects \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as the SoyuzNefteGaz company signed a 25 year deal on Christmas Day \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 enabling her to explore for oil in Syrian waters off the coast of Tartus \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 where Russia already has a naval base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Linked to these global machinations \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 has been a regional divide \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 on sectarian grounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Shia Axis, backed by Russia and China \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 has linked the regimes in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, a Sunni Axis, backed until recently by the US \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 linked Saudi Arabia, Qatar , Jordan and Turkey \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 which has hosted the exiled Syrian political opposition since the conflict began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ever since the start of the Arab Spring \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 whose very name reminds us of a time not so long ago when the uprisings in the region appeared to be for the general good \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the influence of Saudi and Qatar on this alliance has been growing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both were threatened by the potential democratization of their neighbours \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and sought to use their influence to replace dictatorships with theocracies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saudi has a track-record in this area, having funded the Mujahideen and Taliban in Afghanistan \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as well as the Madrasas in Afghanistan and Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And once it became clear that the regime in Damascus was being challenged \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 she immediately began jousting with Qatar for control of the opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will return shortly to the formation of the Syrian National Council \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 controlled by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And while this was being arranged \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 senior Saudi clerics, including the Grand Mufti himself \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 began to light the fuse of Sectarian conflict via the internet and Satellite Television.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He called on all Muslims to burn Churches \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and Sheikh Al-Luhaidan, the former Chief Justice of the Supreme Judicial Council in Saudi Arabia, called for Jihad against the Alawites\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 even if one third of the population died in the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This summer, Sheikh Youssef al-Qaradawi effectively served a death sentence on the entire Alawite sect by describing them as \u2018\u2018more infidels than Christians and Jews\u2019\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the war progressed, Saudi awaited US military intervention \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and when that failed to materialise \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and the US appeared to be softening its stance towards Iran \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 she reacted by ordering extremist Salafi groups to withdraw from the Free Syrian Army \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 to form the \u2018Islamic Front\u2019 and \u2018The Army of Islam\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have repeated this many times in many speeches and articles \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but the FSA was never a force for the good of Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was always overwhelmingly Islamist \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

… and its Supreme Military Council exclusively Salafi extremist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now the FSA no longer exists \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and where it previously masqueraded as a \u2018moderate\u2019 opposition \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 there can be no such equivocation now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the build-up to Geneva 2, Saudi instructed Ahmad Jarba, the head of the National Coalition to attend \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but briefed its alliance of Islamic armed forces against the political process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They reiterated that the conflict would be settled by blood on the front line \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 ensuring that any political developments are rendered meaningless .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fight will go on wither way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The threads of conflict interweave to such an extent that it is impossible to review any in isolation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And so I shall return to Saudi and Qatar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But their interests are inextricably linked to the growing cancer of Islamic extremism around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not just a Middle Eastern issue \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as the tragic events in recent years in Madrid, London, Boston, the Yemen, Nairobi and Northern Nigeria demonstrate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia is fighting Islamic extremism in Chechnya and Dagestan \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 China has the same issue in Xinjiang .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this point, it is important to get our terminology absolutely right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Islam is, and always has been, a peaceful religion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Islamism is a perverted ideology that imposes conformity with Sharia law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It views violence as an acceptable means to that end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saudi has actively encouraged the latter \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 building up a Salafi Islamist force across the Middle East and beyond \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and providing financial backing in addition to flammable rhetoric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Extremism feeds on poverty and misery \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and it works best in a political vacuum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which is why foreign fighters head for Syria in ever-increasing numbers \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and why dozens of Salafi Islamist groups have gathered under various Islamic banners \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 to impose Sharia Law on my country and beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if only to demonstrate that their influence extends well beyond Syria \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 has reportedly made threatening noises recently towards Moscow \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 encompassing extremist violence at the forthcoming Winter Olympics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although her goals are similar, Qatar has tended to take a more subtle approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She has used the vehicle of the Muslim Brotherhood \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 an organisation at the very heart of the misunderstanding of the Syrian opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let us make no bones about this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Brotherhood is an extremist group with an extremist agenda \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 despite the tendency of the Western press to label it as \u2018moderate\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent events in Egypt should make this clear, but there is more fundamental evidence of its rationale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its flag, for example, includes three key elements:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Quran which references Sharia Law \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026two swords which reference Jihad \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026the words \u201cand prepare\u201d (referencing a surat in the Quran that mentions terrifying the enemy of Allah) \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 around which is written:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAllah is our objective; the Prophet is our leader; Qur\u2019an is our law; Jihad is our way; Dying in the name of Allah is our greatest hope.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Brotherhood\u2019s offshoots include Hamas and Al-Qaeda \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and its views on pluralism are summed-up by President Erdogan of Turkey \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 whose AK party is Muslim Brotherhood in all but name \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 described democracy in 2008 as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cJust the train we board to reach our destination\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That journey has allowed the Brotherhood to seep into Middle Easter political life \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 apparently benign at first, but then more aggressively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take it\u2019s widely-recognized spiritual leader Sheikh Youssef al-Qaradawi \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 who defines the gradual introduction of Sharia \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as \u201cnot cutting off hands within the first five years\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also served a death sentence on all Alawites by describing them as “more infidels than Christians and Jews.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Brotherhood’s Deputy Guide, Khairat al-Shater, sets out its core objective as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Subjugating people to God; establishing the Nahda of the Ummah on the basis of Islam.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This background becomes crucial in understanding the Syrian situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two thirds of the initial Syrian National Council were members of the Brotherhood \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 which is unsurprising as it was created in Turkey \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and backed by Qatar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was the SNC that attended the so-called \u2018Friends of Syria\u2019 conferences two years ago \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 with no interest in freedom or democracy at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a moment of slapstick, that would have been hilarious were it not so tragic \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 senior members of the Council greeted other opposition groups outside a meeting of the Arab league in Cairo \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 by throwing punches at them \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 in addition to tomatoes!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its attempts to hide its true intentions have also been laughable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, it recently attempted to demonstrate its religious tolerance to the West \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 by appointing the Christian George Sabra as its head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, the Syrian National Council (formed in Turkey) has evolved into the Syrian National Coalition (formed in Qatar).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But its rationale remains unchanged \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as does its modus operandi \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as we witnessed before Christmas \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 when its President Jarba resolved an argument with FSA spokesman Loay Al-Muqdad \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 by slapping him!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But to return to my central theme \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the great tragedy for the people of Syria \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 was that Secretary of State Clinton continued to recognise this group as \u2018representative\u2019 of the Syrian people for eighteen months \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 before back tracking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She did see the error of her ways \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but yet again, the lessons of history in this region were ignored \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and Secretary of State Kerry not only panders to the whims of the National Coalition \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 he also publically stated during last year\u2019s Congressional debates that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNo. I say with all responsibility: there is no Al-Qaeda in Syria\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This links us from the Islamist political opposition to the rebel forces on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And to anyone doubting the extremist influence of those forces \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 I suggest that you look at the peaceful, democratic, secular nature of their names:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jaysh Al-Mujahidin \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the Islamic Front \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

… Al Nusra \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the Army of Islam \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and ISIS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And for those of you who associate ISIS with a gentle row along the river \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 it actually stands for the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To complicate matters, these Islamic groups do not fight alongside each other against a common cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As was reported a week ago \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the Islamic Front and its allies went to fight with ISIS to remove them from Aleppo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A truce between them was brokered by Al Nusra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s get that straight:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ISIS \u2013 known to be Al Qaeda \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 fought the Islamic Front \u2013 a collection of Salafist groups sharing the ideology of Al Qaeda \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 until the intervention of Al Nusra \u2013 an Al Qaeda group!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What a lovely, moderate, liberal story!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrary to media reports in the West, this is not a battle between moderates and extremists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their disagreement lies in the speed at which the other wishes to impose a radical Islamic State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this has become their pivotal cause \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 rather than the defeat of the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A civil war within a civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This extremist approach has led to a series of massacres against civilians fuelled by sectarian motives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At least 450 Kurdish civilians have been butchered \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 on top of 200 Alawites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shia groups have been murdered in Hatla \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as well as Christians in Al-Duweir in Homs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prior to the carnage in the Christian Town of Maaloula \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 Mohammed Wissam, an activist within the Aleppo Media Center explained that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cISIS told the residents in Aleppo that they came to fight the corrupt insurgents and apply God\u2019s law, calling on everyone to co-operate\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Again, I don\u2019t wish to bore you by repetition of a very simple message \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but how is this opposition in any way democratic?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And how is it representing the people of Syria any more than the vicious incumbent regime?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet advocates of increased Western aid to the rebels argue that the Islamic Front is not an Al Qaeda- like threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How ridiculous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every group within the Islamic Front has committed atrocities against civilians and minorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every one of them has called Jihad against Infidel Alawites, Shias and other minorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every one of them shares a Slafi ideology that means killing anyone that does not share their perverted ideology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every one of them flies the same black banner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They may not yet sit on the West\u2019s list of terrorist groups \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but I can guarantee you that they are all terrorists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within this vipers nest \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the Islamic Front says it has no quarrel with Al Nusra Front \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 which is widely recognised as the main affiliate of Al Qaeda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has rejected parliamentary democracy outright \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and has suggested putting off parliamentary politics until after the war is over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I wonder why?!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This all explains why the UN\u2019s Paulo Pinhero has said that no group in Syria is fighting for democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And why the US\u2019s General Dempsey said that none of the rebel groups share \u2018our\u2019 interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of approximately 100,000 \u2018opposition\u2019 troops \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the defence consultancy IHS Jane’s suggested last year that 10,000 were jihadists linked directly to al Qaeda \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 35,000 were hardline Islamists with a purely Syrian perspective \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and another 30,000 belonging to groups with an “Islamic character”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also suggest they are fractured into 1,000 separate bands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, as we analyse the key military opposition groups \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 they sound extreme \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 they preach extremism \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and they are behaving in a way that can only be described as extreme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across swathes of \u2018rebel\u2019 controlled Syria \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 locals are being tortured to enforce the law \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and women are banned from seeing male doctors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are clear parallels with the fate of Taliban-run communities in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And returning to those lessons from history \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 we must never forget what support for the Taliban did to the region \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 or the impact it had on New York, Madrid, London and the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, in the North of the country \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 Syrian Kurds opposed to the regime and the PYD (linked to the PKK and the Syria regime) \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 are also fighting against the Islamist rebels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All this takes place under the Western banner of the \u2018opposition\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question of who they are opposing becomes more complex by the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the various layers of this conflict demonstrate \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 it is no longer a civil war, but something much broader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that is apparent in the nature of the fighters on both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There has long been a strong Hezbollah influence fighting alongside the regime\u2019s army \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 supported financially and militarily by Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the rebels have been bolstered by a stream of extremist fighters from overseas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a recent estimate by the International Center for the Study of Radicalization \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 around 11,000 people from 74 countries have travelled to Syria to join various rebel groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a conservative figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UN, for example, suggest foreign fighters have arrived from 83 countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past six months, there has been a huge influx of non-Arab and Western fighters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This includes many Indonesians, Kazakhs and Australians \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 motivated by virulent anti-Shia rhetoric emanating from Saudi \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and coming to fight on sectarian grounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And just to add to the mix, the Taliban has also announced its presence with Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thomas de Maziere, Germany\u2019s top security official, suggested last week that the number of Islamic extremists travelling to Syria is \u201cextraordinarily high\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

French President Francois Hollande, took a break from his domestic issues (!) \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 to report the \u2018worrying\u2019 trend of 700 French people leaving to join the fighting in Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But France continues to back the Islamists rebels and the Islamist opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past six months, the Chairman of the United States House Homeland Security Committee \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and the Pentagon \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 have both estimated he proportion of Islamist extremists within rebel forces \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 at over 50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that proportion is growing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is no surprise that Michael Morell believes that extreme Islamism in Syria is now the biggest threat to US National Security \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 which ranks it higher than the threats from Iran and North Korea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This helps explain why the US is now talking to Iran \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as the greater threat is being conducted by Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And with their geographical proximity \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the threat to Europe, Asia and North Africa must be significantly higher than to the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And as the fighters flood in to Syria \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 so the conflict spreads out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I wrote and spoke back in 2011 about the imminent prospect of a regional war \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and was met with a wall of cynicism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In some cases people even looked at me sympathetically!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But with the various tiers of conflict honing in on Syria, it was impossible that the fall-out would be confined within her borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dispute has now reverberated far and wide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lebanon has long been housing a conflict reflecting the sectarian divide in Syria \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and Iraq has become increasingly effected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week, bombs hit Baghdad and a village near the northern town of Baquba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At least 62 people were killed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki warned that militants were trying to set up an \u201cevil statelet\u201d \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as his army struggled to tighten the long border with Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resurgent Islamist forces seek to build an Islamic state on pre-colonial borders across the two countries \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and many towns and villages fly the black flag of Al Qaeda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brian Fishman, an analyst for the Combating Terrorism Center within the U.S. Military Academy at West Point wrote recently that, and I quote:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant\u2019s (ISIL) expansion in Syria …<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 has offered a tremendous platform to recruit, train and fundraise in ways that positioned the group to both stoke and exploit sectarian tensions in Iraq.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wherever the group establishes control \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 music is banned in public places \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and it is illegal to put up pictures of people in shop windows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a clear demonstration of the breadth of the conflict \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 Iraqi forces in the fight against Al Qaeda \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 are now using Russian Mi-35 attack helicopters for the first time \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026as well as U.S. Hellfire missiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the sectarian angle is transparent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hadi al-Amiri, Iraq\u2019s transport minister, has added that it would be impossible to “sit idle while the Shi’ites are being attacked”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is but one example of the struggle spreading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As US Army General Lloyd Austin III put it in October:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe conflict in Syria cannot and will not be resolved militarily, and this sentiment has been universally shared by every leader that I\u2019ve talked with in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All agree that an end to the conflict will require a diplomatic or a political solution, and until such a solution is achieved the fighting will continue and more lives will be needlessly lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Left unchecked, the spread of violence and terrorist activity emanating from Syria could result in a long, drawn out conflict that extends from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lloyd Austin\u2019s analysis was clearly more advanced and better articulated than that of his Secretary of State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the shift in scale of the war \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and the growing extremist influence \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 is best illustrated by the behaviour of Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally, Prime Minister Erdogan transparently facilitated the opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He even questioned publically whether the Syrian President was really a Muslim …<\/p>\n\n\n\n

… which was effectively calling a Jihad against Alawites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since that point, Turkey has given financial, military and every other conceivable form of support to the rebels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SNC and FSA were able to run their headquarters from Istanbul \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and senior Turks criticised the US for blacklisting Al-Nusra \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and spoke in favour of full scale military action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As President Erdogan put it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA limited operation will not satisfy us. It should be the way it was in Kosovo.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But its support for the rebels has opened a Pandora\u2019s Box of troubles for the Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Along its huge Southern border with Syria \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 a state of lawlessness has emerged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was here that a massive cylinder of Sarin gas was found in the homes of suspected Syrian Islamists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They were amongst the hundreds of al-Qaeda recruits that the Sydney Morning Herald reported as being kept in safe houses before being smuggled over the border to wage “jihad” in Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As recently as November, Turkish forces intercepted a vehicle heading for Syria \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 carrying twenty sacks of sulphur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only one suspect was detained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He claimed the chemicals were required by the FSA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other occupants of the vehicle were allowed to escape to Syria on foot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Human Rights Watch pleaded with to Turkey to tighten border controls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But suddenly, the Turkish leadership is playing a very different tune.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As al-Nusra fighters control much of the border \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and with the realisation that general elections loom in 2015 \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 with almost a third of the population composing Kurds and Alawites \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 President Gul has implored the international community to end the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has described Syria as becoming “Afghanistan on the shores of the Mediterranean” \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 with the radicalisation of ordinary people by Islamist jihadist groups posing a growing risk to its neighbours and the countries of Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has formally called for a shift in government policy towards Syria:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“I am of the opinion that we should recalibrate our diplomacy and security policies given the facts in the south of our country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a complete volte-face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turkey has shifted from aggressively patrolling Syrian air space and backing its opposition \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 whilst arming, training and allowing Jihadists to cross its borders \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 to calling for help for its people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is real politick at its most blatant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In practice, however, many of her new border controls \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 including a wall splitting her Kurdish population \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 appear to be aimed less at stopping al Qaeda \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and more at the Kurds fighting them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So the context has changed \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 as does the politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And not just in Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US appeared to be on the verge of military intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then it wasn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran seemed close to escalating the crisis further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then it didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A large Russian fleet headed for Syrian waters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then many ships were called home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saudi Arabia appeared to be in cahoots with Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then wasn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, she has become so disaffected with the US\u2019s new stance \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 that she has rejected a seat on the UN Security Council.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She has actually claimed t have been stabbed in the back \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and has leaked news of a nuclear deal with Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now there are BBC reports that Western and Syrian intelligence officials have held meetings to discuss the Islamist threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And so there are signs that Saudi is beginning to become sidelined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her growing attachment to Israel suggests that she must be short of friends elsewhere!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But despite this, there remains a remarkable lack of international clarity about the issues I have already described \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 particularly the extremist nature of the rebel groups within Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a case in point, the Times leader column last week explained:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe US has leverage with the SNC having withdrawn non-lethal aid out of fear that it would fall into extremists\u2019 hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That risk still exists but it is often overstated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the article then moves on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What?!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How is it in any way overstated, when swathes of Syria in rebel control are flying black flags and imposing Sharia Law?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which brings us back to Geneva 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the startling weakness of its diplomatic framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The regime and Islamists are there, but no democratic group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no spokesperson for the majority of rebel forces (which is no bad thing!).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a Saudi presence but no Iran \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 neither of whom are a positive influence on the region \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but if we have to deal with a sectarian conflict, then we must deal with both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran has the capability to withdraw her fighters \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but will not do so unless Saudi\u2019s stance changes too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How can such an imbalance have been allowed to occur?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My view is that the Syrian regime is fatally flawed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is dictatorial, violent and brutal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has bullied its people for too long \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 leading to the initial protests on the streets of Damascus in 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s appalling behaviour has created the context for war \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and the exodus of two and a half million refugees to Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seven million more are displaced within Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Millions are on the verge of starvation \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 international safety is at an all time low \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and over 135,000 have died within Syria\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

600,000 more are injured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet, according to NATO research last year \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the regime now has 70% support amongst the indigenous population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which clearly says less about the wonderful leadership from Damascus \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and more about the only alternative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My calculations suggest that only 20% of the rebel forces are fighting purely for the good of Syria \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 opposing a despotic regime \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 rather than promoting the rewards of Islam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet in the build-up to Geneva 2 \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 Syrian groups were told by no less an authority than the UN \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 either to come under the banner of the regime or the Syrian National Coalition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democracy, lest the UN forget \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 means true representation of the people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the people who matter are not being represented by either party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have been asking ever since the first Friends of Syria meeting \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 how the Syrian National Council and then the Coalition came into the ascendancy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Were they elected democratically?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And how, in the highly unlikely event that progress between the two parties is made \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 will it benefit the Syrian people?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sadly, it won\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I began with the laudable hopes of Lakhdar Brahimi in advance of the conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In practice, democracy is a very long way off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the meantime, we can only lobby those in positions of power to understand the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Firstly, that no military support should be given to any side in the conflict. We must call on all foreign fighters to leave the country immediately. We must pressurise Saudi, Qatar, Turkey and Jordan to stop funding, arming, training, sheltering and encouraging the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secondly, all financial assistance should be used to supply urgently required medical aid through the Red Cross, UNICEF and other responsible charities<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thirdly if we invite one side of the regional sectarian conflict, we must ask them all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, and most importantly, we should be focusing on the Syrian people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means that the way must be paved for democratic elections \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 bringing the peaceful Syrian majority back into the equation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those elections will not be viable any time soon \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but they should be the core objective of every international group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All opposition groups who believe in democracy and are able to commit to it should be there irrespective or religion, ethnicity or gender.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, they are the victims of a proxy war being fought across the region by countries with huge resources \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 and even greater ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And asking them to support either the Saudi-backed Islamist opposition or the Iranian-backed regime is nothing less than the ultimate Catch 22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thank you so much for your attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would be delighted to answer any questions about any aspect of this complicated situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Director of the ODFS, Ribal Al-Assad today gave a speech at the Oxford University United Nations Association on the subject of the situation in Syira. Ribal spoke about critical situation that the people of Syria find themselves in and the urgent need for a peaceful, dialogue driven solution to the conflict. The full text of […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2151,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speeches","category-videos"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6405"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6405\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6414,"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6405\/revisions\/6414"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2151"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odf-syria.org\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}